December 4, 2022

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Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics.

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00:00 Introduction
01:51 Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep
14:03 The Mood Is Grim” In The Chemicals Business
19:21 Demographics Are Not Helping!
23:25 The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All
32:35 Chemical Prices Are Collapsing
40:04 Has Inflation Peaked?
44:44 In A Recession, Earnings Go Down
46:19 The Fed Put Is No More
52:51 A Food Crisis Is Brewing
55:46 Oil and Natural Gas
01:03:31 How Will Europe Handle This Winter?
01:11:17 There Is Considerable Downside Risk”
01:14:42 Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges’ Research Service

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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